In a detailed analysis, former US Embassy political and economic specialist Michael Martins has argued that former President Donald Trump's renewed threats regarding Greenland should be seen as part of a well-established political playbook, rather than a genuine intent to annex the territory.
The Trump Playbook: Threaten, Raise Prices, Pocket the Win
Writing in his regular column, Martins, the founder of Overton Advisory, stated that until American naval ships are actively moving towards Nuuk, Greenland's capital, talk of annexation should not be taken at face value. He drew a parallel to a recent major US naval deployment off Venezuela, which he characterised as Trump searching for a quick political victory rather than an act of war.
"This is generally how President Trump negotiates," Martins explained. "He threatens the most extreme scenario to focus minds and then raises prices to force his counter parties to come closer to his terms." The strategy, he notes, involves forcing the other side to offer up something they believe Trump wants, after which he claims the win before moving to a new target. Martins predicts the same pattern will apply to the Greenland situation.
How Denmark Can Defuse the Greenland Situation
While a firm believer in NATO and US alliances, Martins warns that simply pointing out to Trump that an attack on Denmark would shatter the alliance is counterproductive, as this is the very leverage he is wielding. Instead, he proposes three concrete actions for the Danish government.
First, he suggests signing or updating an investment agreement to grant the US preferential access to Greenland's strategic minerals, mirroring a tactic used by Ukraine to secure American funding. A high-profile signing ceremony would amplify the political win for Trump.
Second, Denmark could offer to fund an additional US military base on the island or rename an existing NATO facility after the former president. Martins cites the example of "Fort Trump" in Poland, a base that was never built but which helped ensure US troops remained in the country during Trump's first term.
Finally, finding Trump a new focus could divert attention. Martins suggests that recent diplomatic overtures between Canadian Prime Minister Carney and Chinese President Jinping ahead of USMCA trade renegotiations could serve as a perfect alternative target.
London Life: E-Bikes, Tube Shutdowns, and Soaring Bills
Beyond geopolitics, Martins turned his critical eye to several local London issues. He voiced strong support for Lime e-bikes and similar rental schemes, revealing that Londoners spent £10 million on the green bikes last summer alone. He fears local councils will curb the services due to complaints from a vocal minority he labels NOMPTYs (Not On My Pavement, Thank You).
He also criticised Mayor Sadiq Khan for shutting the London Underground on Christmas Day, calling it hypocritical in a majority non-Christian city. Martins argued the closure denied Transport for London staff of other faiths the opportunity to earn overtime pay.
On a personal note, Martins expressed shock at a 50 per cent surge in his water bill despite a 20 per cent reduction in usage. He traced the increase not to general taxation but to Thames Water's planned £435 million IT upgrade, a sum he equated to building five schools or 25 GP surgeries.
Concluding on a lighter note, Martins recommended following psychologist Ingrid Jennison on Instagram for her psychoanalytic deep dives into popular TV and film characters, from Tony Soprano's dreams to the symbolism in Fleabag, with a warning that her content is heavily laden with spoilers.
