If Democrats are to win Texas, James Talarico must win blue-collar voters. Dustin Guastella argues that Talarico got the opponent he wanted, but flipping Texas blue requires winning over working-class voters, not just wealthy donors.
The Race in Texas
Texas could become the hottest battleground state, based on primary results. Democrat James Talarico, a progressive Presbyterian seminarian, will face Trump-backed attorney general Ken Paxton, who is plagued by scandals. Liberals are excited, as Paxton is considered a weak candidate. Talarico, a millennial who quotes scripture, seems ideal. However, blue-collar voters, not donors, will decide the outcome.
Polls and Reality
Early polls show Talarico slightly ahead, but they skew toward highly educated voters. For example, a Public Policy Polling survey had Talarico up seven points, but only 22% of respondents lacked a college degree. A University of Texas poll showed an eight-point lead, with only 27% non-degree holders. These polls may overrepresent liberal-leaning college graduates. In the primary, Talarico performed well with educated voters but poorly with those without college experience. Since over 60% of Texas voters lack a degree, winning the working class is essential.
Talarico's Approach
Talarico focuses on issues like the cost of living and inequality, which are popular. However, his style is more professorial than populist. He has a Harvard master's degree and worked as an ed-tech executive. He sometimes sounds rehearsed, like an impersonation of Barack Obama. Despite campaigning against elites, he comes across as an insider. His Christian background may be seen as a political act, potentially condescending to religious voters.
Cultural Politics
Talarico has embraced cultural positions that appeal only to liberal elites. He faced attack ads for saying 'God is nonbinary,' a statement he claims was taken out of context. Such issues could damage his campaign among working-class voters.
Systemic Issues
These faults reflect a broader Democratic party problem: leaders are drawn from white-collar backgrounds, separating them from the working class. Even when they adopt populist messages, they sound snobbish. Talarico cannot change his background, but he can focus on issues. Paxton, a millionaire backed by billionaires, is corrupt and out-of-touch. His economic program includes making America the 'crypto capital,' which won't help working families. However, Paxton's faux populism may appeal to conservative voters.
A Better Program
To capitalize on Paxton's weaknesses, Talarico needs a coherent economic vision. Cutting Trump's tariffs and expanding tax breaks is insufficient. He should focus on raising wages, not just cutting costs. He needs a productivist vision for the economy, including public investments in infrastructure. Texas has seen a building boom from datacenter construction, raising wages for workers. Similar investments in energy, grid upgrades, and infrastructure could strengthen the labor movement and persuade working-class voters.
Dustin Guastella is a research associate at the Center for Working Class Politics and director of operations for Teamsters Local 623.
