A large-scale research project led by leading psephologist John Curtice has found that Reform UK is becoming increasingly reliant on socially conservative views for political support, which could hinder its ability to push poll ratings much higher.
Key Findings of the Study
The study, conducted as part of the British Social Attitudes report, revealed that while Reform supporters are disproportionately unhappy with politicians and public services, new recruits appear to hold more robust attitudes on issues like diversity and welfare. Curtice noted that these views are only held by a minority of voters, suggesting that support for Reform might plateau close to its current range of mid- to high-twenties.
“Something like 30% looks like not an absolute ceiling, but they are unlikely to rise much above that given the character of the campaign issues that they are emphasising,” said Curtice, a fellow of the National Centre for Social Research. He added, “I suspect that given its current political strategy, that is probably a ceiling,” while acknowledging that in the current fragmented political landscape, this might still be enough to win a general election under the first-past-the-post system.
Social and Cultural Issues at the Forefront
Curtice argued that the importance of social and cultural issues means that improving public services alone, as Keir Starmer has suggested, would be unlikely to stop Reform's rise. “Given the very sharp ideological distinctiveness, while improving the state of country will help, it may not be enough,” he said.
This year’s survey, which polled over 4,600 people across the UK, examined the unifying characteristics of Reform supporters. It found that they are more likely to have voted for Brexit, be older, male, and have fewer qualifications. Only 9% of graduates support the party, compared to 40% of those with qualifications below A-level standard.
Mistrust and Dissatisfaction
A striking thread among Reform supporters is mistrust in politicians and government effectiveness. They express higher dissatisfaction with the NHS and are more likely to agree that “politicians talk too much and take too little action.” They also tend to worry more about their personal finances.
Attitudes on Social Issues
Notably, 67% of Reform supporters believe migrants are bad for the economy, and 75% think they undermine UK culture—more than double the national averages of 33% and 35% respectively. Additionally, 88% say equal opportunities for transgender people have “gone too far,” compared to 48% of the general public. Among Reform backers, 52% feel the same about lesbian, gay, and bisexual people, and 51% about black and Asian people, versus national figures of 27% and 17%.
People who are both authoritarian and dissatisfied are particularly likely to back Reform, with support reaching 46% within this group. However, comparing 2024 data with earlier cohorts, Curtice found that the rise in new recruits is driven more by ideology than by discontent with public services or the economy.
The report concludes: “Although unhappiness with the health service and people’s financial circumstances is more common among Reform supporters, it has seemingly been the party’s ability to appeal to those with a distinctive ideological outlook that has been more important reason for the increase its support since 2024.”
