Iran is facing its most significant internal challenge in years, with nationwide protests resulting in a severe government crackdown. According to reports, at least 648 people have been killed by Iranian security services, with more than 10,600 individuals arrested. The unrest represents a profound hardening of public opinion against the state, driven by a complex mix of economic hardship and political repression.
The Spark and the Crackdown
The latest wave of demonstrations began on 28 December, initiated by electronics vendors in Tehran's historic bazaars before rapidly spreading across the country. Researcher Eskandar Sadeghi-Boroujerdi of St Andrews University notes that while the government initially struck a conciliatory tone, this approach quickly evaporated. Disturbing videos circulated showing security forces storming hospitals to assault doctors and patients, further inflaming public anger.
In a drastic move to quell dissent, Iranian authorities shut down the internet and blocked international calls on 9 January, effectively isolating the country. The regime has since threatened protesters with death sentences, accusing them of acting on behalf of foreign powers like Israel and the United States.
A Deep Well of Discontent
Sadeghi-Boroujerdi argues that the protests are not solely an economic outburst but stem from "a deep well of discontent." Iran is grappling with a mismanaged water crisis, horrendous air pollution, and chronic electricity shortages due to crumbling infrastructure.
These issues are compounded by severe economic deterioration. National inflation exceeds 40%, with food inflation soaring past 70%. The cost of essential staples has skyrocketed; for instance, bread has seen an inflation rate of 110%, devastating the poorest citizens who rely on it. This economic despair intersects with long-simmering anger over political repression and civil rights abuses, creating a potent mix for rebellion.
A Regime Under Unprecedented Pressure
The researcher posits that the Islamic Republic is weaker now than at any point in its 45-year history. A decade of compounding pressures, including crippling international sanctions, has not only weakened the state but has "hollowed out Iranian society." This process has entrenched a corrupt oligarchy while driving mass impoverishment, significantly eroding the once-stable middle class.
Iran's regional strategy has also unravelled. Its intervention in the Syrian civil war to prop up Bashar al-Assad ultimately backfired, leaving the country dangerously exposed. Sadeghi-Boroujerdi suggests that following the Gaza war and the weakening of allies like Hezbollah, Iran was seen as "uniquely vulnerable," leading to a direct 12-day conflict with Israel in June where US forces bombed Iranian nuclear facilities.
Internally, the regime faces a crisis of governance. While newly elected president Masoud Pezeshkian has struck a more reformist rhetorical tone, ultimate power rests with Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Notably, former presidents from across the political spectrum, including Hassan Rouhani and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, have remained silent, refusing to endorse the state's narrative that the unrest is merely a foreign plot.
Historical Context and Future Uncertainty
This wave of protest follows a long history of social movements in Iran, most recently the 2022 'Women, Life, Freedom' uprising sparked by the killing of Mahsa Jina Amini. That movement, though brutally suppressed, forced significant concessions on mandatory veiling laws.
The international response adds another layer of complexity. Former US President Donald Trump has threatened "very strong" military action and warned of imposing 25% tariffs on any country trading with Iran. While some protesters and diaspora groups have rallied around exiled figures like Reza Pahlavi, son of the former Shah, Sadeghi-Boroujerdi cautions that this support often stems from exhaustion and desperation rather than genuine belief in a monarchist restoration.
The path forward remains highly uncertain. The regime's brutal crackdown may temporarily suppress dissent, but the underlying economic, environmental, and political grievances remain unaddressed. With the society described as "brittle" and the state regionally isolated, Iran stands at a perilous crossroads, where future flashes of unrest seem inevitable.
