Government Data Projects 730,000 Future Universal Credit Recipients to Miss Higher Benefit Rate
Government data estimates that by the 2029-30 fiscal year, approximately 730,000 future universal credit recipients will miss out on a higher benefit rate due to forthcoming rule changes. This projection has ignited significant concern among charities and disabled people's organisations, who warn that the new criteria could severely impact hundreds of thousands of individuals with debilitating conditions.
Strict 'Severe and Lifelong' Criteria to Halve Benefits for New Claimants
Starting in April, the health element of universal credit—an additional payment for those assessed as too unwell to work or prepare for work—will be reduced to £50 per week and frozen for new claimants. Exceptions will only apply if a condition is deemed terminal or meets the strict "severe and lifelong" criteria, meaning it shows no prospect of improvement. Ministers had previously pledged that this clause would protect the most severely disabled and ill individuals from the lower rate.
However, charities argue that many debilitating conditions, such as multiple sclerosis, learning disabilities, bipolar disorder, Parkinson's disease, ME, and long Covid, may not qualify under these rigid standards, despite often rendering individuals unable to work. Samuel Thomas, a senior policy adviser at the anti-poverty charity Z2K, stated, "Cuts to universal credit's health element threaten to push some of the most seriously ill and disabled people in the country to the brink. The higher rate of support will only be available to new claimants whose condition is lifelong and shows no prospect of improvement."
Charities Warn of Exclusion and Increased Poverty Risks
Charities have expressed fears that the new rules could exclude people with conditions like cancer, schizophrenia, or those who have suffered strokes or heart attacks, simply because partial or distant recovery cannot be entirely ruled out. Ella Smith, the welfare rights policy lead for the ME Association, emphasized, "The government says it's protecting people with the most severe conditions, but in reality, this actively excludes swathes of severely ill and disabled people. The fact someone might improve at some point in the future should not be used to reduce essential support today."
Government data indicates that by 2029-30, the average annual loss for those affected could reach £3,000. While a Labour backbench rebellion last summer paused proposed personal independence payment reforms, MPs voted to proceed with changes to universal credit. Existing claimants will continue to receive £97 per week regardless of whether their disability is judged lifelong, creating what James Taylor, director of strategy at Scope, describes as a "two-tier universal credit system."
Challenges in Providing Medical Evidence and Navigating Complex Systems
Further concerns have been raised about the requirement for new claimants to provide extensive medical evidence from the NHS to qualify for the higher "severe" payment. This poses particular difficulties for individuals with conditions like learning disabilities, where obtaining a formal diagnosis can be challenging due to unclear NHS pathways. Hannah Nicholls-Harrison, a policy manager at Mencap, noted, "For people with a learning disability who do not have that level of documentation, or who lack support to navigate a complex system, this will mean missing out on thousands of pounds a year."
Charities warn that the lower benefit rate could push already struggling disabled people into deeper poverty, with some facing "destitution." Tom Pollard, head of policy at Mind, added, "Many people with severe and long-term mental health diagnoses, such as bipolar disorder or schizophrenia, may not meet these criteria, despite impairments and barriers that will often keep them out of work for long stretches of their lives."
A Department for Work and Pensions spokesperson responded, stating the government's commitment to supporting vulnerable people. They explained, "Under the severe conditions criteria, claimants are assessed not on their condition itself but on how it affects them, with the criteria intended to protect those who are not expected ever to be able to work due to a severe lifelong health condition or disability that is unlikely to improve. Those with the most severe, lifelong conditions, those nearing end of life, and all existing universal credit health claimants will continue to receive the higher rate."
