The defection of former minister Robert Jenrick to Nigel Farage's Reform UK party has, paradoxically, left Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch in a stronger position, according to analysis of Thursday's dramatic political events.
A Pre-emptive Strike Solidifies Leadership
In a move described by allies as "brutal" and effective, Badenoch pre-empted Jenrick's planned departure. She sacked him as shadow justice minister and stripped him of the Conservative whip before he could announce his defection, forcing him and Reform UK to scramble with a late-afternoon press conference. Tory sources claim this proactive step allowed Badenoch's office to obtain and tweet extracts of Jenrick's intended speech, causing last-minute chaos for the defecting MP.
"It cemented Kemi's position as a robust leader," one shadow minister told The Guardian. "Historically, the party has suffered from... not enough leaders getting rid of those people. Hopefully now we're all pulling in the same direction." The sentiment among remaining MPs appears to be that while losing a senior figure is not ideal, Badenoch handled the situation decisively.
Deterring Further Defections and Internal Unity
The immediate question following Jenrick's move is whether other sitting Tory MPs will join Reform before its self-imposed May deadline for defections. One MP frequently linked with a switch has insisted they are staying, suggesting Jenrick's actions have had a unifying effect. "My sense is not," they said. "I think it has really solidified people in the other direction. What Robert did looks really blatant and cunning. People really hate that."
Another shadow minister noted the event "should give anyone else pause for thought," highlighting that party members "don't like traitors." Internal Conservative WhatsApp groups were reportedly quiet on the matter, with one MP bluntly stating, "Nobody cares about this."
Polling Challenges and Future Tests
Despite the internal boost, Badenoch faces the persistent challenge of stagnant national polling. The YouGov tracker shows Conservative support has recently risen to around 20% after months near 16-17%, but this remains a historically low level. Her standing with MPs and members has improved since a well-received party conference speech in October and a strong response to the Labour budget in November.
"At least 40 people have, separately, mentioned the budget speech to me," one Conservative MP said. "It's amazing how little infighting there is. We're all focused on getting [Keir] Starmer out." However, the upcoming May local elections in Scotland, Wales, and England pose a significant test. A result on current polling levels could be seen as disastrous enough to shift internal dynamics once more.
For now, many Tories are viewing Jenrick's exit with a degree of schadenfreude. "His departure is like some sort of horrible arranged marriage, carried out simply to spite one side of the family," one source remarked with delight, underscoring the messy nature of the split that has, for the moment, strengthened Kemi Badenoch's hand.
