A profound geopolitical shift has placed the United States and Europe on an adversarial footing, according to a stark analysis. The Trump administration's national security strategy, which explicitly aims to cultivate resistance within European nations, is described as a profound betrayal that demands a decisive response from EU capitals.
The Precarious Pillars of Trump's Power
The United States' economic fate and, by extension, President Donald Trump's political survival are now inextricably tied to the artificial intelligence boom. AI investment accounted for a staggering 92% of US GDP growth in the first half of this year. Without it, growth would have been a mere 0.1%. This creates a precarious bubble where the pensions of Maga voters are bound to its success.
Trump's political coalition is also showing cracks on this issue. In July and again recently, he failed to push Senate Republicans to pass his AI moratorium bill, which would have prevented states from creating their own AI regulations. Factions within his base, aligned with Steve Bannon, fear mass worker displacement and are alarmed by children's exposure to digital platforms, making big tech a dangerous topic for the president.
Europe's Two Strategic Levers
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen holds two powerful cards that could destabilise this AI-dependent economy and, consequently, Trump's presidency.
The first is the global monopoly held by Dutch firm ASML. Based in Veldhoven, ASML produces the advanced lithography machines essential for etching the most sophisticated microchips. These machines are the lifeblood of Nvidia, the AI chip giant now crowned the world's most valuable company. By imposing export controls on these machines—slowing or stopping shipments not only to the US but also to Taiwan, where Nvidia manufactures its top-tier chips—Europe could decide the pace of American economic expansion. While such a move would be painful for the Dutch and European economies, the analysis suggests it would be catastrophic for Trump.
The second, and far simpler, lever is the enforcement of the EU's existing data protection rules. A data "free-for-all" in the US allows tech giants to train their AI models on vast troves of personal information, a practice illegal in Europe where strict controls are required. Confidential documents from US litigation reveal the vulnerability of companies like Google to basic data rule enforcement. Meta, for instance, has reportedly been unable to explain to a US court what its internal systems do with user data.
If Brussels finally cracks down on lax enforcement in member states like Ireland, forcing US tech firms to rebuild their data-handling systems from the ground up, the repercussions would be immense. These companies would have to inform investors that their AI tools are barred from the valuable European market until they comply, a shock the AI bubble might not survive.
A Call for Courage and a Lesson from Brazil
The argument posits that the balance of risk now demands European leaders act decisively. Past caution and concessions, such as the muted response to Trump's "28-point plan" for Ukraine, have only emboldened him. The extreme reaction from Maga leaders to a relatively minor €120m fine on X demonstrates that pulling punches will not placate them.
The analysis points to Brazil's President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva as a model. In September alone, he publicly defended Brazil's sovereignty, countered US tariffs, passed a new law protecting children online, and delivered a forceful speech at the UN General Assembly. This resolve reportedly led Trump to soften his tone, with lower tariffs now expected after negotiations.
Trump has called European leaders weak, doubting they will defend their democracies against him. The current response, the analysis concludes, proves him right. However, he may not yet understand that von der Leyen holds significant sway over the US economy and his political future. The fight for Europe's democratic integrity, the argument ends, may require her to grasp this leverage firmly and act beyond prior norms.
