As the festive season brings its usual whirlwind of shopping and celebrations, one man is unlikely to be enjoying the cheer: Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer. His first full year in office has been marked by a dramatic reversal of fortunes, with his Labour government ending 2025 in a perilous political position.
A Year of Unravelling Promises and Plummeting Polls
Just sixteen months after a landslide victory reminiscent of Tony Blair's heyday, Sir Keir's promise of a "decade of national renewal" has rapidly soured. No freshly elected government in recorded history has fallen in public estimation so quickly. The initial difficulties were profound, beginning with a budget that raised taxes by £40 billion—a move many saw as a breach of manifesto commitments on national insurance.
The financial pain was compounded by a rise in government borrowing by tens of billions and the controversial withdrawal of the winter fuel payment from millions of pensioners. Simultaneously, the government was dogged by a series of grubby scandals. These included freebies and lifestyle funding from Lord Ali for cabinet members, the 'glasses for passes' affair, and tickets to high-profile events like football matches and Taylor Swift concerts.
The administrative chaos was underscored by a deluge of politically appointed civil servants, the resignation of a cabinet minister over fraud, and the dramatic departure of Downing Street chief of staff Sue Gray.
From Bad to Worse: A Second Turbulent Year
Entering Christmas 2024, the Prime Minister might have believed the worst was behind him. Despite the scandals, Labour retained a narrow lead in the polls and had appointed election mastermind Morgan McSweeney as the new Downing Street chief of staff. The expectation was that things could only improve.
This optimism proved tragically misplaced. Since last Christmas, Labour has slipped from first, to second, and now to a dismal third place in the poll of polls. A second tax-raising budget broke Chancellor's own promises, further eroding trust.
The ministerial exodus became a flood. An anti-corruption minister resigned amid a corruption scandal. The deputy prime minister and housing secretary departed over a housing scandal. A homelessness minister was forced out for evicting her own tenants. In total, 11 ministers resigned or were sacked in connection to various scandals over the year, a staggering rate of attrition.
Economic Woes and Electoral Blows
As the government lurched from crisis to crisis, the economy suffered. Inflation rose to the highest in the G7, borrowing costs soared, and the Chancellor was revealed to be a 'Chino'—Chancellor In Name Only—after being forced into a U-turn on benefits spending by her own backbenchers.
Payrolled employment fell month after month. Electorally, the party faced defeat after defeat, often at the hands of Nigel Farage's insurgent forces. This Christmas, the political landscape is transformed: Reform UK and the Conservatives now hold gold and silver in the polls, with Labour pushed into third.
To cap off a torrid year, Starmer has received a last-minute festive gift with a sting. The trade union UNISON has elected a new hard-left general secretary, who gains a seat on Labour's governing board. She joins deputy leader Lucy Powell as another influential voice that has publicly criticised the Prime Minister and could support a future leadership challenge.
After a year characterised by scandal, economic hardship, and catastrophic polling, the trajectory for Sir Keir Starmer and his government looks bleak. As 2026 approaches, the question is not of renewal, but of survival.
