As 2025 draws to a close, political commentator Eliot Wilson is once again gazing into his crystal ball. After a mixed but largely successful set of forecasts for the past year, he is now offering five new predictions for the political landscape of 2026. From the fate of the Prime Minister to a looming scandal for a rising political force, the year ahead promises more drama in Westminster and beyond.
Looking Back at the 2025 Scorecard
Before venturing into the new year, it is worth reviewing the track record. At the start of 2025, Wilson made five predictions. He admits one was incorrect: he expected Liberal Democrat Mike Ross to become Mayor of Hull and East Yorkshire, but Reform UK's Luke Campbell won by 11,000 votes.
However, he claims four successes. He correctly anticipated that a Reform MP would leave the party, which happened when James McMurdock quit in July. He forecast that Dame Andrea Jenkyns would be elected Mayor of Greater Lincolnshire, which she won with a majority of 39,500. He also predicted the opposition would force a Cabinet minister's resignation, which occurred when Deputy Prime Minister Angela Rayner walked in September. Finally, he foresaw the government losing a by-election it expected to win, which came true when Reform's Sarah Pochin overturned a Labour majority of 15,000 in Runcorn and Helsby.
Five New Forecasts for the Coming Year
Drawing on his experience as a former parliamentary insider and long-time observer, Wilson has identified five key trends and events he believes will define 2026.
1. Downing Street's Top Aide Under Pressure
Wilson predicts that Morgan McSweeney will not survive 2026 as Downing Street Chief of Staff. Having succeeded Sue Gray in October 2024, McSweeney has faced consistent criticism. Wilson argues that a political adviser's position becomes untenable when they become the story themselves, and McSweeney is nearing that point. Described as a strategist rather than a fixer, his mistakes are mounting. The prediction suggests Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer will eventually see removing McSweeney as a necessary safety valve to relieve pressure.
2. An SNP Revival in Scotland
Despite appearing to be a party in decline after Humza Yousaf's resignation in 2025, the Scottish National Party is poised for a comeback, according to Wilson. He forecasts that the May 2026 Scottish Parliament elections will produce an SNP majority government. The prediction hinges on a collapse in Labour's popularity in Scotland following Starmer's troubled start as UK Prime Minister. Combined with Reform UK's surge and the Conservatives' ongoing identity crisis, this has left John Swinney's SNP with a commanding double-digit lead in the polls.
3. Reform UK Faces a Local Authority Scandal
Reform UK's meteoric rise in local government, winning 804 councillors and control of 10 authorities in May 2025, carries significant risk. Wilson warns that the party's rapid expansion has led to hasty candidate vetting. With many inexperienced councillors now in administration, he predicts a Reform UK-led local authority will suffer a major scandal in 2026. He points to past issues, including the imprisonment of its former Welsh leader Nathan Gill, as precursors to a more serious case of incompetence or wrongdoing.
4. America Abandons Ukraine
On the international stage, Wilson makes a grim forecast regarding the war in Ukraine. He believes America will walk away from the conflict under President Donald Trump. With direct military aid already virtually ended, Wilson predicts Trump will go further, halting intelligence sharing, ceasing air support capabilities, and withdrawing anti-missile defences. He argues Europe lacks the capacity to replace this support, leaving Ukraine in an increasingly precarious position as Vladimir Putin shows no desire for peace.
5. Keir Starmer's Unhappy New Year
In perhaps his most contentious prediction, Wilson states that Keir Starmer will see in New Year 2027 in Downing Street. Acknowledging Starmer's woeful performance and rock-bottom popularity, Wilson argues the mechanics of removing a Labour leader make a coup unlikely. Triggering a contest requires 20% of Labour MPs (currently 81) to nominate a single challenger. With no Labour Prime Minister ever having been removed from office, and with MPs unlikely to unite behind a credible alternative, Wilson forecasts Starmer will limp on, albeit with nobody happy about the situation.
A Year of Political Turmoil Ahead
Eliot Wilson concludes that 2026 is set to be another tumultuous year in British politics. From potential upheaval in Number 10 to seismic shifts in Scotland and the first major growing pains for Reform UK, the forecasts suggest a period of significant instability. While these predictions are, as he admits, hostages to fortune, they are grounded in the persistent patterns and pressures that define modern political life. As ever, only time will tell which prophecies come to pass.
