The once-unstoppable momentum of Donald Trump's second presidential term has ground to a halt, with the prevailing image of his administration now that of a leader asleep at the wheel. As 2025 draws to a close, the Republican Party is bracing for a potential electoral trouncing in next year's midterm contests, dragged down by an increasingly unpopular president.
A Presidency Running on Empty
Embarking on his second term with a blitz of activity, Trump moved at breakneck speed. On his first day, he issued pardons for nearly all involved in the January 6 insurrection and launched a radical expansion of executive power. He signed 225 executive orders, 56 memorandums, and 114 proclamations in just eleven months, many mirroring the conservative Project 2025 playbook.
Yet, the initial fervour has dissipated. Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, notes that Trump's legacy may now be "the political collapse of Republicans in this era." Recent polls starkly illustrate the shift: a Gallup survey shows Trump's job approval rating has sunk to 36%, with disapproval rising to 60%—dangerously close to the 34% nadir he hit after the Capitol attack.
Policy Overreach and Domestic Backlash
The administration's aggressive domestic agenda has sparked widespread backlash. A hardline immigration crackdown, invoking the 1798 Alien Enemies Act to deport Venezuelans to a mega-jail in El Salvador, has drawn criticism for overreach. "City after city, community after community has expressed frustration," said Wendy Schiller, a political scientist at Brown University.
Economically, the president's signature Working Families Tax Cut Act is criticised for transferring wealth to the rich and stripping healthcare from millions. His broad, aggressive tariffs have caused market volatility and higher consumer prices. "They're feeling it in every corner of people's lives," Schiller added, calling the tariffs a "greatest self-inflicted wound."
Other controversial actions include:
- Firing 17 independent inspectors general.
- Launching justice department investigations into perceived enemies like former FBI director James Comey.
- Withdrawing from the Paris climate agreement and dismantling climate science infrastructure.
- Appointing Robert F Kennedy Jr, fanning anti-vaccine sentiment.
Legal Challenges and a Resurgent Opposition
The administration's pace has met fierce legal resistance. Skye Perryman of Democracy Forward, which has filed numerous lawsuits, states the government is "ruthlessly breaking the law" and is "on a collision course with the constitution." Nearly 500 lawsuits have been filed in federal court, with the administration losing before judges appointed by both parties and Trump himself.
This legal pushback coincides with a re-energised political opposition. The No Kings protests attracted millions, with an October gathering of 7 million cited as the biggest civic action in over fifty years. Democrats, campaigning on affordability, have stormed to key victories in New Jersey, Virginia, and New York.
Patrick Gaspard, former aide to Barack Obama, now places 70% odds on Democrats recapturing the House in a 'massive tsunami.' He argues voters now hold Trump, not Joe Biden, responsible for economic outcomes by a two-to-one margin.
A Lame-Duck Prospect and GOP Exodus
The grim outlook for November 2026 has triggered an exodus. Several Republican senators—including Mitch McConnell, Thom Tillis, Joni Ernst, and Tommy Tuberville—will not seek re-election. Over two dozen House Republicans are also abandoning their seats.
As the midterms approach, typically firing the starting gun for the next presidential race, Trump faces lame-duck status—a position he is unlikely to relish given his hints at an unconstitutional third term. Conservative commentator Charlie Sykes warns of a president with "nothing politically left to lose," questioning how he will wield his "vast, unchecked powers" recklessly.
With key voter groups like the young and Latino voters deserting him over jobs, inflation, and healthcare, the coalition that returned Trump to power is fracturing. The question is no longer who will inherit the MAGA mantle, but which Republicans can escape the taint of his turbulent second term.
