As Donald Trump marks one year since his historic return to the presidency, the nation is taking stock. The 20th of January 2026 signals an end to an eventful first year of the Trump 2.0 administration, a period defined by bold executive actions and fervent political division.
The Economic Picture: Inflation Claims Versus Wallet Reality
Central to Trump's 2024 campaign was a vow to slay the inflation that plagued American households. In his lengthy inauguration speech, he promised to direct his cabinet to use "the vast powers at their disposal" to rapidly bring down costs.
The data reveals a mixed record. Inflation did drop to a four-year low of 2.3% in April 2025, but has since crept up again. The latest December figure sits at 2.7%, only slightly below the 2.9% recorded in December 2024 under President Biden. Both rates remain above the Federal Reserve's 2% target.
While Trump has touted the decline and declared inflation "defeated," the lived experience for many tells a different story. Electricity prices have soared by 6.7%, a significant burden during winter. Food costs, particularly for meat, fish, and eggs, are up 3.9% since he took office, and dining out remains 4.9% more expensive than a year ago.
Heather Hurlburt, former chief of staff to Biden's trade representative, acknowledged Trump's success in implementing promised tariffs and rolling back drilling restrictions. However, she told Sky News: "if you judge him by the things that the address promised Americans would have - prices are not down, inflation is not down, manufacturing is not up, standard of living is not up."
On tariffs, estimated to generate around $330 billion in annualised revenue for 2025, Ms Hurlburt noted the sum was significant but did not offset recent tax cuts.
Immigration: A Focus on Enforcement and Murky Numbers
Upon taking office, President Trump declared a national emergency at the southern border, deploying thousands of troops and allocating a huge $75 billion for immigration enforcement. The result has been a dramatic drop in border encounters, falling from 96,033 in December 2024 to around 10,000 per month for much of his first year.
On deportations, the picture is less clear. The Department of Homeland Security claims over 622,000 deportations in 2025, while ICE's own publications suggest a figure closer to 352,375. The true number likely lies in between, indicating deportations are higher than under Biden—who oversaw 597,450 removals and returns in 2024—but not by the orders of magnitude Trump promised.
Doris Meissner of the Migration Policy Institute stated Trump has "unleashed a range of actions... that are unprecedented" and kept immigration at the centre of his agenda. However, ICE data shows just one in four people in immigration detention have a criminal conviction, falling short of the focus on "criminal aliens."
Foreign Policy: The Elusive Peacemaker Legacy
President Trump entered office vowing to be a "peacemaker," measuring success by "the wars that we end." His administration can claim a genuine victory in brokering a peace deal between Armenia and Azerbaijan, ending a decades-long conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh.
Yet, other claimed peace efforts have faltered. Conflicts in Southeast Asia and Central Africa have seen continued fighting. The wars in Ukraine and Gaza persist, despite a campaign promise to solve the former in "24 hours." A fragile ceasefire exists in Gaza, but Palestinian deaths have not ceased.
Analyst Benjamin Friedman told Sky News: "Trump has failed utterly to be a peacemaker. His desire to make peace, while real, has not been matched by success, or even commitment, to the cause." This assessment is underscored by his administration's willingness to use military force, including strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities and the capture of Venezuela's president.
Data from the ACLED conflict monitor shows the Trump administration conducted or was involved in 672 air and drone strikes in its first year, nearly matching the total for Biden's entire four-year term.
Justice and Symbolic Rebrands
Having decried his own prosecution as a "witch hunt," President Trump swore to end the weaponisation of the state against political opponents. Research by Reuters, however, found at least 470 individuals and entities were targeted for retribution in his first year—more than one per day. The White House defends these actions as legitimate policy corrections and probes.
Amidst weighty policy, Trump also pursued symbolic changes. He swiftly renamed the Gulf of Mexico the "Gulf of America" by executive order and restored the name Mount McKinley to Alaska's tallest peak, reversing a decision by Barack Obama. These acts, while seemingly peripheral, hinted at a broader theme of reclaiming national legacy and assertiveness that has defined his return to power.
The first year of Trump's second term has delivered on some promises with forceful action, particularly on border enforcement. Yet on core economic issues and his grand peacemaking ambitions, the results are more qualified, leaving the question of MAGA success or promises broken firmly in the eye of the beholder.
