Two eye-catching last-32 ties at the World Cup offer hope of a winner from outside the traditional powers, as Japan face Brazil and Morocco take on the Netherlands on Monday.
Old order challenged
Since Argentina in 1978, there have been only two new winners – France and Spain – both from the heart of Uefa. Yet the old world has never been so at odds with the game's leadership, as Fifa president Gianni Infantino portrays himself as a champion of the global south.
Japan and Morocco impressed in the buildup and maintained their form in the group stage, but reached this point via very different routes. Morocco, in 1986, became the first African side to make it through a World Cup group stage, before becoming the first to reach a semi-final in Qatar four years ago.
Morocco's diaspora and development
Morocco has benefited from its diaspora: of the 26-man squad, 19 were born outside Morocco, three in the Netherlands. Many had schooling in top European academies. But Morocco also funds its own development system via the Mohammed VI football academy, which provided four players for the 2022 squad. The programme has been expanded to four more cities.
According to Jonathan Wilson, writing for The Guardian, "it is reasonable to assume that over the next decade there will be significant elevation of opportunity for aspiring footballers who grow up in Morocco."
Japan's style and development
In Japan, wealth is not the issue. The J League, established in 1992, has been a huge success. Only three of this squad still play in Japan, but players are developed at home. Under Hajime Moriyasu, there is a discernible Japanese style: they press in organised waves and play a neat, technical, possession game.
Japan have never won a knockout game at a World Cup, but they came from 2-0 down to beat Brazil in a friendly in Tokyo in October, which may mitigate psychological barriers.
Key matchups
Morocco will have to find a way to deal with the power of Brian Brobbey, and the clash between Achraf Hakimi and Cody Gakpo looks vital. Takefusa Kubo could be back after a knee injury to add creative edge for Japan.
These two games are extremely competitive. Brazil and the Netherlands could win, and the two best hopes for a winner from outside the traditional powers could be gone within hours. But the fascination with these matchups is telling: if a new world is coming into being, it will be born on the pitch via link-ups with the European system, rather than through Infantino's machinations.
