The NFL playoffs intensify this weekend with the divisional round, where the top seeds face their first serious tests. The Buffalo Bills, San Francisco 49ers, Houston Texans, and Los Angeles Rams all host challengers, but the path to the conference championships is fraught with danger. Our analysis breaks down the key battles and predicts where an upset might be brewing.
Bills' Short-Yardage Mastery vs Broncos' Ferocious Defence
The Saturday afternoon clash sees the Buffalo Bills host the Denver Broncos. For the Bills, victory hinges on continuing their dominance in critical short-yardage situations. Last week, a powerful "tush push" on fourth down epitomised their clutch play, with quarterback Josh Allen powering for 10 crucial yards. The team converted four of five third downs with four or fewer yards to go against Jacksonville and ranked fifth in the regular season in such scenarios.
However, they face a stern test in Denver's defence, which was eighth-best against third-and-short this season. The loss of run-blocking receivers Gabe Davis and Tyrell Shavers to ACL tears further complicates Buffalo's ground game against a Broncos front that allowed the second-fewest rushing yards per game (91). If Denver can stifle James Cook and force Allen to throw, their league-leading pass rush (68 sacks at a 9.7% rate) could dominate.
Key Player: Broncos edge rusher Nik Bonitto, with 13.5 sacks in 2024, has the power to harass Allen all game.
Prediction: Bills over Broncos, but it will be a physical, low-scoring affair.
Fearless 49ers Meet Seahawks' Ground-and-Pound
The San Francisco 49ers travel to Seattle riding a wave of resilient, injury-defying performances. Despite losing star tight end George Kittle, they showed in Philadelphia that they are more than the sum of their parts. Quarterback Brock Purdy's fearless deep-ball attitude will be crucial against a Seahawks secondary known as the "Legion of Boom 2.0," which conceded the fewest points per game (17.2).
Seattle's clear path to victory is to exploit the 49ers' run defence, as they did in a Week 18 win. The combined 171 rushing yards from Kenneth Walker and Zach Charbonnet controlled the clock and pressured Purdy. With left tackle Trent Williams back for San Francisco, the battle in the trenches will be decisive.
Key Player: Seahawks cornerback Devon Witherspoon, a lockdown defender who quarterbacks actively avoid.
Prediction: Seahawks over 49ers, provided quarterback Sam Darnold (oblique) plays. His absence changes everything.
Patriots and Bears Look to Continue Playoff Surges
On Sunday, the Houston Texans face a New England Patriots team brimming with defensive confidence. After dismantling the Los Angeles Chargers' offensive line with six sacks, the Patriots will look to similarly pressure C.J. Stroud. The Texans' O-line ranked 22nd in pass block grade, and with top receiver Nico Collins likely out (concussion), the burden falls on veteran Christian Kirk.
The weekend concludes with the Los Angeles Rams hosting the Chicago Bears. Rams coach Sean McVay must leverage his offensive weapons, particularly the prolific connection between Matthew Stafford and Puka Nacua, who was targeted 18 times last week. However, the Bears' belief is unshakable, and with quarterback Caleb Williams dramatically reducing his sack rate from 10.8% to 4%, he can extend plays and find receivers in space.
Key Players: For New England, running back Rhamondre Stevenson, who accounted for 30% of their offence last week. For Chicago, defensive end Montez Sweat, coming off a dominant game against Green Bay.
Predictions: Patriots over Texans; Bears over Rams in a potential shootout.
The divisional round promises high drama, where a single mistake or moment of brilliance can define a franchise's season. While the top seeds are favoured, the Broncos, Seahawks, Patriots, and Bears all possess the specific tools required to engineer a season-ending shock.
