Physical video games are on track to vanish within the next decade, according to a bold prediction from Circana analyst Mat Piscatella. He shared his forecast on Bluesky, citing the dominance of digital sales and the increasing number of consoles without disc drives.
US physical game sales see rare uptick
Piscatella posted a graph showing US physical game spending from 2007 to 2026, revealing a consistent decline since 2009. However, for the 12-month period ending May 2026, spending rose 3% year-over-year to $1.6 billion (£1.2 billion), marking the first increase since 2009. Despite this, Piscatella downplayed the significance, noting that digital sales now account for the overwhelming majority of volume.
Console hardware trends signal shift
More than half of Xbox Series consoles in the US lack a physical drive, while over a quarter of PlayStation 5s are disc-free. Piscatella stated, 'We likely have less than a decade left of physical software.' The second-hand market, he added, 'doesn't really matter.'
GTA 6 physical edition includes only download code
Rockstar's announcement that physical copies of GTA 6 will contain only a download code at launch has further dented confidence in boxed games. Rumors suggest a disc version may follow, but the move by one of gaming's biggest franchises signals a major shift.
Switch 2 may explain temporary boost
The small sales increase could be linked to the launch of the Switch 2, whose audience traditionally buys more physical games. However, if Sony and Microsoft release next-generation consoles with only digital SKUs, the trend will accelerate. Rising console prices due to memory shortages may make cheaper digital-only options more attractive, though hard drive costs could still favour physical media.
Physical games may become niche
While a complete disappearance is hard to imagine, physical games may survive only as a niche interest, sold through specialist retailers like iam8bit or Limited Run Games. The future of boxed software, analysts say, is increasingly uncertain.
