An anonymous trader has sparked a major controversy after reportedly making a profit of over £300,000 by betting on the dramatic capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro. The lucrative wager, placed on a prediction market platform, has led to serious questions about whether highly sensitive US military intelligence was leaked in advance of the operation.
The Suspicious Bet That Paid Off
According to a report in The Wall Street Journal, the trader placed more than half of the total bet on the evening before the attack on Maduro's Caracas fortress. Then, in a move that has raised the most eyebrows, they doubled down on their position just hours before US forces entered the Venezuelan capital. The operation involved large-scale strikes and resulted in at least 80 fatalities, according to preliminary estimates.
The successful bet was made on Polymarket, the world's largest prediction market. The platform, which has faced previous scrutiny over potential insider trading, has grown exponentially since 2020. Its advisory board even includes Donald Trump Jr., the son of the former US president. With nearly 500,000 active users monthly, the site now hosts bets on a vast array of topics, from sports to high-stakes geopolitics.
A Regulatory Grey Zone
While insider trading on traditional capital markets is illegal and vigorously prosecuted, online prediction markets like Polymarket operate in a far less regulated space. This incident has highlighted a significant loophole. Democratic congressman Ritchie Torres announced plans this week to introduce a bill aimed at closing it. His proposed legislation would specifically bar elected officials, lawmakers, and federal employees from making insider trades on such platforms.
The bill prohibits trading based on non-public information that "a reasonable investor would consider important." However, its future is uncertain. It is unclear if House Speaker Mike Johnson would bring it to a vote, or if President Donald Trump would sign it should it pass through Congress.
The New Frontier of Geopolitical Gambling
The Maduro bet is not an isolated case on Polymarket. The platform is currently buzzing with wagers on other major world events. The top trending bet as of now predicts that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei will be ousted by June 30. Other popular markets set deadlines for a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire and speculate on the nominees for the 2028 US presidential election.
Although US citizens are officially barred from the main platform, many traders reportedly use VPNs to circumvent the ban. This case demonstrates how prediction markets are becoming an unorthodox and controversial arena where confidential state secrets could potentially be monetised, posing a fresh challenge to regulators and lawmakers worldwide.
