A new exclusive poll has laid bare a profound sense of economic pessimism in the United States, with nearly half of all Americans reporting that their personal financial security is deteriorating.
Deepening Gloom Over Personal Finances
The survey, conducted for the Guardian by The Harris Poll between 11 and 13 December 2025, found that 45% of Americans believe their financial situation is getting worse. This figure is more than double the 20% who feel things are improving. The findings deliver a significant blow to President Donald Trump, who has consistently championed his economic record.
Despite strong official growth figures posted last week, public perception is starkly different. A majority of 57% now believe the US economy is in a recession, a sharp increase of 11 percentage points from a similar poll in February 2025. This is despite the technical definition of a recession—two consecutive quarters of negative growth—not being met.
Blaming the White House and a K-Shaped Divide
Criticism is increasingly directed at the government's management. When asked who is most responsible for rising prices, 76% of Democrats and 72% of independents pointed to government management, representing substantial jumps from February. Republicans were more divided, with 55% blaming the government and 45% citing corporate practices.
The poll also highlights what economists call a K-shaped economic recovery, where fortunes diverge sharply based on wealth. Among those earning under $50,000 a year, 59% said their finances are worsening. In contrast, only 37% of those making over $100,000 felt the same, underscoring a deep inequality in economic experience.
Political and Demographic Fault Lines
The economic sentiment reveals deep political and demographic splits. Democrats are almost twice as likely as Republicans to say their financial security is worsening (52% versus 27%). Independents, a crucial voting bloc, are particularly gloomy, with 54% feeling worse off—a 9-point rise since February.
Significant gaps also appear along gender and racial lines:
- 62% of women believe the US is in a recession, compared to 52% of men.
- 66% of Black voters and 67% of Hispanic voters think the country is in a recession, versus 52% of white voters.
This growing pessimism is attributed to a tumultuous year marked by Trump's tariffs, mass government layoffs, and a crackdown on immigration, which have shaken consumer confidence for five consecutive months according to The Conference Board.
The White House has countered this narrative, with President Trump insisting in a mid-December speech that his administration is "bringing our economy back from the brink of ruin" and that prices are "coming down fast." However, this exclusive poll suggests a substantial portion of the American public remains deeply unconvinced about their economic future.
