Industry experts have cast significant doubt on former US President Donald Trump's assertion that American oil giants are poised to invest tens of billions of dollars to revitalise Venezuela's crippled petroleum sector following the rendition of President Nicolás Maduro.
Bullish Claims Meet Corporate Caution
In an interview with NBC News on Monday, 18 December 2025, Trump boldly predicted that dominant US players could have an expanded oil operation "up and running" across Venezuela in less than 18 months. He suggested the timeline could be even shorter, acknowledging the endeavour would require "a lot of money."
However, this optimistic vision contrasts sharply with the public stance of the very companies named. Major firms like ExxonMobil, ConocoPhillips, and Chevron—the sole US oil major still operating in the country—have declined to outline any concrete investment plans. A Conoco spokesperson stated it would be "premature to speculate on any future business activities or investments," directly contradicting Trump's press conference claims that companies were ready to "go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure."
The High Cost and Long Timeline of Recovery
Analysts believe Trump's proposed schedule is unrealistic. Dan Pickering, Chief Investment Officer at Pickering Energy Partners, expects a more protracted process. He forecasts it could take three years to see a meaningful production increase, with an uplift of around half a million barrels per day (bpd) unlikely before 2029.
The financial scale is vast. According to Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy, adding half a million to a million bpd would require over $10bn in investment over two to three years. Restoring output to early 2010s levels of 2.5 million bpd is estimated to need a staggering $80bn to $90bn over six or seven years.
The Demand for "Iron-Clad" Guarantees
The central obstacle, according to industry insiders, is risk. Without an "iron-clad guarantee" from the US federal government to fully reimburse their investments, companies are expected to proceed with extreme caution. Elliott Abrams, Trump's former special envoy to Venezuela, noted that while firms may talk positively about the opportunity, that "doesn't mean they're going to invest."
Pickering summarised the industry's wary mindset, stating companies want to "avoid getting screwed." They require protection from sovereign risk, including the threat of re-nationalisation, and from a potential future US administration refusing to honour any repayment agreements. Trump has mentioned reimbursement but provided no detailed plan, leaving the question of whether the US taxpayer would foot the bill unanswered.
Despite the allure of Venezuela's vast crude reserves, the combination of political instability, immense capital requirements, and a lack of concrete government guarantees suggests the path to significant US oil investment will be far slower and more complex than recently proclaimed.
