The Petrol Retailers Association (PRA), representing the majority of UK forecourt operators, has issued a stark warning: fuel prices are poised for further significant increases in the coming weeks. However, the industry body has moved to reassure motorists and businesses that there are no immediate concerns regarding the security of supply, with stocks described as "stable."
Wholesale Hikes Feeding Through to Pumps
According to the PRA, price increases faced by retailers rose sharply again last week, and these costs will continue to be passed on to consumers at the pump. The association cited data from S&P Global's Platts division, which revealed that diesel bore the brunt of wholesale market movements, rising by an average of $258 per tonne over the course of the week. The figure for petrol was up by $2.
Diesel Under Particular Pressure
Diesel prices are experiencing heightened upward pressure due to the UK's reliance on imports for the vast majority of its diesel supply, whereas most petrol is refined domestically. The ongoing conflict in the Middle East has applied a significant squeeze to global diesel supply, intensifying competition for available stocks.
Gordon Balmer, Executive Director of the PRA, stated: "There is no suggestion of shortages. Supplies are stable." He added a crucial caveat: "Pump prices will continue to rise," as retailers replenish their fuel stocks over the coming weeks at these elevated wholesale costs.
Forecasts Point to Steep Easter Prices
Data on average pump costs is expected imminently. The RAC motoring group reported last Friday that petrol prices had jumped by 12p per litre since hostilities began in the Middle East at the end of February. The increase for diesel was double that figure.
The RAC has forecast that the average price of a litre of unleaded petrol could reach 150p, with diesel potentially hitting 180p, by the Easter period. Mr. Balmer suggested that averages around these levels might be seen even sooner, as fuel operators grapple with surging wholesale costs and cannot afford to sell at a loss.
Government Scrutiny and Calls for Intervention
The government has signalled it is closely monitoring forecourt margins while exploring ways to help mitigate the fresh energy-led price surge threatening both consumers and businesses. The broader energy context is severe: a barrel of Brent crude is currently up 60% month-to-date, while the figure for natural gas has soared by over 100%.
Ministers are facing mounting pressure to assist drivers and households by easing the substantial tax burden on fuel sales and energy bills. On fuel, tax typically constitutes around half the total cost of filling up. Currently, a 5p per litre fuel duty cut implemented by the previous government is scheduled to begin being unwound from September.
A government spokesperson, confirming plans for a cost-of-living focused meeting of the COBR committee, said: "As the chancellor set out to Parliament, the extent of the economic impact of the situation in the Middle East will depend on its severity and its duration. The government will be responsive to an uncertain world, and always act responsibly in the national interest." The spokesperson added that the government is already working to prioritise vulnerable households and businesses, and to act on the cost of living and inflation.
