UK Farmers Grapple with Fertiliser Crisis Amid Middle East Conflict
The tranquil 230-hectare arable farm owned by James Cox in Gloucestershire stands in stark contrast to the turbulent conflict unfolding in the Middle East. Yet, the repercussions of US and Israeli strikes on Iran, along with Tehran's retaliation, are already cascading across the Atlantic to impact Cox and countless other British food producers.
Skyrocketing Input Costs Threaten Spring Planting Season
Crucial farming inputs, including fuel and fertiliser, have experienced dramatic price surges precisely as the spring planting season commences. This timing exacerbates the financial strain on farmers who must increase their usage of these essentials in the coming weeks. Cox has already administered one fertiliser dose to his oilseed rape crop, with a second application scheduled shortly, alongside imminent planting of spring barley.
"The sums don't add up," Cox remarks, highlighting the precarious economic calculations farmers now face. While he is fortunate to have secured his seasonal fertiliser supply and maintains full diesel tanks for vehicles and heating oil, the uncertainty surrounding future replenishment costs looms large. "Not everybody will have got all the fertiliser they need, because of their finances and poor prices on the grain market," he notes.
Global Trade Disruption Through the Strait of Hormuz
The conflict's impact stems from its stranglehold on vital global trade routes. According to the UN Conference on Trade and Development, approximately one-third of global seaborne fertiliser trade transits the Strait of Hormuz, based on 2025 data from Kpler. This narrow shipping channel, located off Iran's southern coast, also facilitates a fifth of seaborne crude oil and gas.
Since the war's onset, this critical artery has effectively closed, halting the transport of fossil fuels alongside ammonia, nitrogen, and sulphur—essential components in synthetic fertiliser production. A prolonged shutdown could disrupt operations at major Gulf-region fertiliser manufacturing sites, which exported about 16 million tonnes by sea in 2024.
Fertiliser Price Surges and Broader Agricultural Pressures
Escalating energy costs required for fertiliser production are already driving prices upward. Egyptian urea prices, a key benchmark, have soared by over 45%, reaching $700 per tonne from about $484 in late February. This surge threatens half of global food production dependent on synthetic nitrogen, with UK farmers alone using roughly 1 million tonnes annually for crops and animal feed.
Potential shortages are anticipated to inflate prices of household staples like bread, pasta, and potatoes, with analysts at Jefferies predicting accelerated food price inflation by year's end. The crisis compounds existing pressures on British agriculture, including:
- Post-Brexit subsidy changes, with the basic payment scheme phased out in England
- Unpredictable weather patterns linked to climate change
- Lower global crop prices
- Impending inheritance tax on agricultural properties
Fuel Supply Uncertainties and Farmer Adaptations
Fuel suppliers, unable to match volatile global oil market fluctuations, are now confirming red diesel costs only upon delivery, according to Alex Harrison of Fram Farmers. "The biggest challenge for us is that we haven't received any price lists from suppliers. Given everything that is going on, farmers want a price," she explains.
Unlike the Ukraine conflict, which boosted crop prices to offset rising input costs, grain markets have remained relatively stable amid the Iran war. This discrepancy is prompting strategic shifts among farmers. Cox is reconsidering whether additional fertiliser investment for milling-quality wheat is economically viable, given the modest premium.
David Wilson, a crops specialist at Fram Farmers, observes other adaptive measures: "Some farmers this year are growing more peas and beans as you don't apply any nitrogen to those crops." Others are exploring reduced fertiliser usage, with Wilson adding, "There will be a point where people will consider if it's worth planting the crop in the first place."
Government Response and Food Resilience Concerns
The National Farmers' Union has expressed deep concern regarding the conflict's impact on UK food resilience, noting Environment Secretary Emma Reynolds' commitment to monitoring supply chains. Reynolds has promoted the new sustainable farming incentive as a fairer subsidy system, while Chancellor Rachel Reeves has warned against companies exploiting the crisis for "excess profits" and called for Competition and Markets Authority oversight of fuel retailers.
NFU President Tom Bradshaw emphasises the broader implications: "The impact on food production and food price inflation will depend on what happens over the coming weeks. We have to build our ability to withstand global shocks so we can continue to produce food for the 70 million consumers of the UK."
As Cox surveys his fertiliser stockpile in a locked farm building, he recognises his relative fortune compared to peers who lacked upfront capital for early purchases. The current crisis evokes difficult memories of 2022's price spikes following Russia's invasion of Ukraine, yet presents distinct challenges that may fundamentally alter British agricultural practices and food security in the months ahead.
