Weight-Loss Jab Could Be Made for $3 a Month, Study Finds
New analysis reveals that weight-loss jabs like Wegovy and Ozempic could be manufactured for as little as $3 per month, potentially making the treatment accessible to millions in lower-income nations as patents expire. This breakthrough comes as global obesity rates soar, with over a billion people affected worldwide, particularly in regions adopting westernized diets and sedentary lifestyles.
Essential Medicine Designation and Access Challenges
The World Health Organization designated semaglutide, sold under the brand names Wegovy for obesity and Ozempic for diabetes, as an essential medicine in September last year. However, health leaders warned that high prices were severely limiting access to this critical treatment.
Published as a pre-print, the new research indicates that semaglutide could be mass-produced for $3 (approximately £2.35) for a monthly injectable dose. Newer pill formulations might cost around $16 per month. Dr. Andrew Hill from Liverpool University's pharmacology department, one of the study's authors, stated, "These low prices open the door to worldwide access to an essential medicine."
Patent Expirations and Global Impact
The study found that core patents on semaglutide are set to expire in 10 countries this year, including Brazil, China, India, South Africa, Turkey, Mexico, and Canada from March 21, paving the way for generic competition. Additionally, patents have not been filed in another 150 countries, primarily in Africa. Collectively, these 160 nations are home to 69% of people with type 2 diabetes and 84% of those living with obesity.
Prof. François Venter from Witwatersrand University in Johannesburg, another author, emphasized, "Drugs to treat HIV, TB, malaria, and hepatitis are available in low- and middle-income countries at near-production costs, saving millions of lives. We can replicate this success for semaglutide."
Structural Challenges and Health System Integration
Researchers cautioned that cheaper treatments alone will not address the root causes of obesity, such as food insecurity, poverty, urbanization, and commercial food environments. They stressed the need for coordinated policies and procurement planning to maximize benefits.
Dr. Nomathemba Chandiwana, chief scientific officer at South Africa's Desmond Tutu Health Foundation and an obesity specialist not involved in the study, noted, "This could be very significant for South Africa and many low- and middle-income countries where cost has been a major barrier." She highlighted that about 27% of adults globally qualify for such drugs, with most residing in LMICs where access is extremely limited.
Chandiwana added that integrating these drugs responsibly into broader obesity and diabetes care is now a key question for health systems. Obesity is linked to numerous health conditions, including heart disease, stroke, and cancer, contributing to 3.7 million deaths annually from excess weight.
Rising Diabetes Rates and Historical Context
The number of people living with diabetes has surged from 200 million in 1990 to 830 million in 2022, with the steepest increases in low- and middle-income countries. Semaglutide was first approved by US regulators in 2017 and currently costs about $200 per month in the US and £120 in the UK. Patents in Britain, continental Europe, and the US are not due to expire for another five years.
The research methodology, based on shipment records of key ingredients from 2024 and 2025, has previously accurately predicted prices for generic medicines for HIV, hepatitis C, and some cancer drugs. These findings align with 2024 research by Médecins Sans Frontières, which also indicated that diabetes drugs, including semaglutide, could be produced and sold much more affordably.
