Trump's Greenland Focus Reveals Geopolitical Fault Lines
China has maintained a sustained interest in establishing what it terms a 'Polar Silk Road' through Arctic shipping routes, positioning itself as a 'near-Arctic state' despite geographical distance. This ambition forms part of President Xi Jinping's broader Belt and Road Initiative, seeking to extend Chinese influence through global infrastructure and trade networks.
Western Alliance Fractures Create Chinese Opportunities
According to European Union foreign affairs chief Kaja Kallas, China and Russia must be experiencing a "field day" regarding Donald Trump's recent declarations about Greenland. Trump's statements, posted on Truth Social, claimed that "World peace is at stake! China and Russia want Greenland, and there is not a thing that Denmark can do about it." This rhetoric has highlighted growing divisions within NATO and Western alliances that Beijing views as strategically advantageous.
Professor Wang Wen from Renmin University in Beijing observes that "Most Chinese people view this as yet another manifestation of Trump's bullying, hegemonic and domineering behaviour." However, he adds significantly that "Trump's occupation of Greenland would signify NATO's demise, a prospect that would greatly please Chinese people." This perspective reveals how Beijing interprets current geopolitical shifts as potentially weakening the US-led international order that has historically constrained Chinese expansion.
Historical Chinese Challenges in Greenland
For years, Chinese attempts to establish a foothold in Greenland have faced substantial resistance from both the United States and Denmark. In 2018, reportedly under American pressure, Denmark blocked a bid from a Chinese state-owned company to expand Greenland's airport network. Earlier, in 2016, another Chinese company was prevented from purchasing an abandoned naval base in the territory.
Andrew Small, director of the Asia programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations, notes that "I doubt there is a single Chinese strategist who would have listed the US annexing Greenland as being among their security concerns." He explains that Chinese strategists have traditionally viewed "the US alliance network as one of the most significant aspects of US strategic edge over China" and considered "the potential for that alliance network to be mobilised against China as one of their greatest concerns."
The Polar Silk Road Takes Shape
Despite these obstacles, China has made tangible progress toward its Arctic ambitions. Between 2012 and 2017, Chinese foreign direct investment in Greenland represented more than 11% of the territory's GDP, substantially higher than in other Arctic nations. This investment reflects Greenland's interest in Chinese capital to develop its mineral resources, though this has sometimes conflicted with Danish and NATO security concerns.
In October, a significant milestone was achieved when a Chinese container ship completed the first commercial voyage from China to Europe via the Northern Sea Route along Russia's Arctic coastline. Chinese state media reported the journey took just 20 days, approximately half the typical transit time through traditional southern routes. This development represents the practical realisation of China's Polar Silk Road concept, though it relies heavily on cooperation with Russia.
Current Limitations and Future Prospects
Patrik Andersson of the Swedish National China Centre notes that "Since Donald Trump's first presidential term ... Chinese companies in Greenland have faced pushback from the United States and Denmark, and Beijing itself seems to have discouraged investment there in recent years." He concludes that "China's engagement in Greenland today is extremely limited."
Some analysts point to China's 6.5% stake in the Kvanefjeld mining project as evidence of continued interest in Greenland's rare earth minerals. However, this project has been inactive since 2021 when the Greenlandic government banned uranium mining. Andersson suggests that "Given US and Danish opposition to Chinese activity in Greenland, and the wider western efforts to build rare earth supply chains independent of China, it is also unlikely that Chinese companies would be allowed to invest in any other Greenlandic rare earth projects."
Beijing now faces the complex challenge of navigating a geopolitical landscape where traditional Western alliances show signs of strain under Trump's leadership, creating both opportunities and uncertainties for China's long-term Arctic ambitions.
