Why Andy Burnham Poses a Major Threat to Keir Starmer's Labour Leadership
Labour may have successfully blocked Andy Burnham, the mayor of Greater Manchester, from running for parliament, but this decisive action has far from resolved the party's underlying issues. Burnham's popularity and perceived threat to Keir Starmer's leadership continue to simmer, raising questions about Labour's internal dynamics and future direction.
The Symbolic Battle: Prince Across the Water vs. King of the North
Andy Burnham is often described with two contrasting symbols: Labour's prince across the water, reminiscent of the exiled James Francis Edward Stuart, and the King of the North, evoking the honourable Starks from Game of Thrones. Supporters of Keir Starmer tend to favour the Stuart analogy, highlighting themes of fakery and flakery, while Burnham's allies lean into the Stark imagery of bravery and legitimacy. This symbolic divide underscores the deeper ideological and personal rifts within the party.
The Rulebook and Realpolitik: How Labour Handled Burnham's Ambitions
When rumours surfaced about Burnham's desire for a parliamentary seat, speculation swirled around potential moves by Labour's national executive committee (NEC). Options like imposing an all-female or all-people of colour shortlist were considered, but ultimately, the NEC opted for a simpler solution: blocking Burnham because he already holds the position of Greater Manchester mayor. This decision was both smart in its self-evident logic and dumb for failing to address the core of Burnham's appeal—his widespread popularity.
The Broad Coalition of Support for Andy Burnham
Burnham's threat stems from his ability to unite diverse factions. Everyone who wishes a Labour government had a clear sense of purpose likes him, as do those with fond memories of the Blair years and even critics of that era. He has managed to distance himself from his 1990s persona, perhaps through effective communication or genuine evolution. Moreover, people who don't closely follow politics appreciate his perceived effectiveness in Manchester and relatability, such as knowing bus fares, while political observers are exhausted by the mainstream's shift towards Reform-like rhetoric.
Favourability Ratings and the Stark Contrast with Starmer
Evidence of Burnham's broad appeal is clear in his favourability ratings. Last September, he scored +7, a standout figure in a political landscape where most leaders languish in negative territory. In contrast, a recent YouGov poll placed Keir Starmer at -56, equal with Donald Trump and less popular than almost all global figures except Vladimir Putin and Hamas. This stark disparity highlights the challenges Starmer faces in rallying support and unifying the party.
Conclusion: A Saga with No Easy Resolution
This ongoing saga is unlikely to end quietly. Labour's leadership had few alternatives to ensure its survival, short of embracing a more pluralistic approach from the start. Instead, the party finds itself embroiled in internal strife reminiscent of Game of Thrones, but without the dramatic flair of dragons. As tensions persist, the question remains: can Labour bridge its divides and present a united front, or will Burnham's shadow continue to loom large over Starmer's tenure?
