Exclusive new polling indicates that half of the British electorate believes Sir Keir Starmer will be replaced as Prime Minister before the end of 2026. The survey, conducted by YouGov for Sky News, reveals significant public scepticism about the Labour leader's longevity in Number 10, alongside deep pessimism about the nation's economic direction.
Leadership Speculation and Potential Challengers
According to the exclusive poll of 2,041 adults, taken between the 21st and 22nd of December 2025, 50% of voters think Sir Keir will be ousted by the close of 2026. A detailed breakdown shows that 31% believe it is "probable" he will be replaced within a year, while a further 19% are convinced it is "definite". In contrast, only 35% of those surveyed expressed any confidence in his chances of remaining leader.
This public sentiment mirrors reported unease on the Labour backbenches concerning the party's standing in the polls. Significant figures within the party are rumoured to be considering a leadership challenge should the upcoming May local elections prove disastrous for Labour. Names frequently mooted as potential successors include Health Secretary Wes Streeting, Greater Manchester Mayor Andy Burnham, Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood, and former deputy leader Angela Rayner.
Despite the swirling rumours, Labour Party chair Anna Turley asserted to Sky News over the weekend that Sir Keir would "absolutely" still be Prime Minister next Christmas. The latest polling suggests the public remains largely unconvinced by such assurances.
A Damning Verdict on the Economy
The YouGov/Sky News poll delivered an equally harsh assessment of the government's economic management. A staggering 71% of respondents stated that the economy had deteriorated over the preceding 12 months, with a mere 7% believing it had improved. Public perception of personal finances was also bleak, though showed a slight improvement from the period immediately following November's budget.
When asked about their own financial prospects for the next year, only 15% anticipated an improvement. Some 40% feared their situation would worsen, while 39% expected it to remain stagnant. This represents a marginal shift from a month prior, when 56% expected their finances to deteriorate and 75% condemned the government's economic handling.
Political Landscape and Voting Intentions
The polling landscape remains challenging for the governing party. A separate YouGov survey of more than 2,200 people places Labour in second position, though it notes a slight two-point increase to 20%. Reform UK continues to lead in voting intention at 25%, despite a three-point drop from the previous week.
The Conservatives sit narrowly in third place on 19%, a two-point rise, while the Liberal Democrats and the Greens are both on 15%. This data paints a picture of a fragmented political field and sustained pressure on the Labour leadership to improve its standing with the electorate.
The combined findings on leadership stability and economic confidence present a serious challenge for Sir Keir Starmer's premiership as it approaches a critical juncture in the political calendar.
