Scottish political parties officially launched their Holyrood election campaigns on Thursday, with events across Glasgow and Edinburgh setting the stage for a pivotal vote on 7 May. Against a backdrop of bright spring sunshine, leaders from the SNP, Scottish Labour, the Scottish Conservatives, the Scottish Greens, and the Liberal Democrats outlined their visions, all centered on the theme of change, while voters remain notably indecisive.
SNP's Independence Focus and Reform UK's Shadow
At the newly renovated Citizens Theatre in Glasgow, SNP leader John Swinney urged supporters to campaign for a "historic" overall majority, promising voters "a fresh start with independence." Swinney emphasized that an SNP majority would not only force another independence referendum but also "lock Nigel Farage out of any influence" in Scotland. This comes as recent polling shows Reform UK, led in Scotland by billionaire financier Malcolm Offord, neck and neck with Scottish Labour for second place behind the SNP.
Swinney's laser focus on independence is a gamble, given its backfire in the 2024 general election when the SNP plummeted from 38 to nine MPs. Offering a "fresh start" after nearly two decades in power and diminishing public satisfaction with SNP-run public services is seen by some as either canny strategy or sheer nerve. Swinney also warned of a potential "grubby, backroom deal between Labour and Reform" if an SNP majority is not achieved.
Scottish Labour's Response and Change Agenda
At the Scottish Labour launch in Glasgow's Barras Art and Design venue, leader Anas Sarwar responded strongly to Swinney's claims, stating that the SNP leader should be "ashamed of himself" for suggesting any association with Reform UK. Sarwar called this a "trick" and accused Swinney of wanting to talk up Reform to avoid discussing his own record.
Sarwar stood in front of a banner echoing "Scotland needs change," a bold move given Keir Starmer's unpopularity, and told activists, "After 20 years of SNP government, Scotland needs change." He dismissed Reform UK as a "distraction" that "can't win in Scotland and can't beat the SNP," instead promising to focus on getting the basics right on health, crime, and housing.
Other Parties and the Struggle for Relevance
In Edinburgh, Scottish Conservative leader Russell Findlay deployed a trusted Tory attack line on the constitution, urging voters to back his party to "stop Swinney and his push to break up the United Kingdom." However, with the Conservatives facing a haemorrhage of support to Reform UK, they are scrambling for fourth place against the Scottish Greens and Liberal Democrats.
On Calton Hill in Edinburgh, the Scottish Greens presented themselves as the true progressive alternative, arguing that with the SNP tacking to the center, "no one else is representing that kind of progressive change any more." Meanwhile, at Newhaven harbour, Liberal Democrat leader Alex Cole-Hamilton outlined a vision for "change with fairness at its heart," acknowledging widespread voter frustration.
Voter Indecision and Election Dynamics
One of the great unknowables of this election is voter behavior. With many Scots tired and frustrated with politicians, it remains unclear whether they will pick disruptors like Reform UK, stay at home, or vote tactically. According to Ipsos polling earlier this month, two in five voters say they may yet change their mind before polling day, highlighting the high level of uncertainty.
Reform UK did not hold an event on Thursday, possibly due to internal issues, as another of their Scottish parliament candidates quit, bringing to four the number who have stepped down or been suspended since their launch last week. Despite this, Nigel Farage's shadow loomed large over the other launches, with leaders differentiating their approaches to him and his party.
As the campaign unfolds, the clash between the SNP's independence push, Labour's change agenda, and the rise of Reform UK will define the race, with voter apathy or tactical voting potentially shaping the outcome in unpredictable ways.
