Commuters across London are bracing for a significant hit to their wallets as Mayor Sadiq Khan has confirmed a series of sharp increases to transport fares, putting the capital on a starkly different path from the rest of the country.
A Capital Out of Step: Fares Rise as National Rail Freezes
While Prime Minister Keir Starmer's government has pledged a historic freeze on national rail fares for 2026, Londoners will see their travel costs move in the opposite direction. From March, Tube fares will rise by an average of 5.8 per cent. This will be followed by bus fare increases in July. Furthermore, the Mayor has already implemented a 20 per cent hike in the congestion charge.
This is not a one-off adjustment. The funding settlement agreed with the government mandates that Transport for London (TfL) fares will increase by more than the rate of inflation every year until 2030. This formula means costs will consistently outstrip the Retail Price Index.
The Negotiation Deficit: Why London Lost Out
The article suggests the root cause lies in City Hall's negotiating position. Despite the Mayor's public narrative of tough talks with Chancellor Rachel Reeves, the financial outcome tells a different story. In the last spending round, TfL received a £2.2bn multi-year capital settlement.
However, this was overshadowed by the £2.5bn awarded to Manchester, which was part of a broader £15bn transport package for regions in the North and Midlands. Critics argue this indicates ministers view the London Mayor as a weak negotiator, resulting in a deal that forces fare rises onto passengers to balance the books.
City Hall may point to the confirmed DLR extension to Thamesmead as a success. Yet, with TfL expected to fund the £1.7bn project entirely through borrowing against future fare income, it is a pyrrhic victory. This commitment has effectively sidelined more consequential projects like Crossrail 2 or the Bakerloo line extension.
More Pain, Little Gain: Passenger Frustration Mounts
For the travelling public, the central question is what they receive in return for higher fares. TfL has faced criticism for a lack of clear commitments on service improvements. Key passenger concerns remain unaddressed:
- No concrete plan to significantly increase step-free station access.
- Persistent issues with fare evasion and train cleanliness.
- Continued spending on controversial projects like the £6.3m Overground rebrand, which added no new capacity.
This comes against a backdrop of declining passenger satisfaction. Approval ratings have fallen from 86% in 2016/17 to 78% in 2022/23. A 2023/24 survey found only 54% of Londoners believed TfL cared about its customers.
With 548 TfL senior managers earning over £100,000 a year and no sign of a major efficiency drive or restraint on executive pay, passengers are left feeling they alone are bearing the brunt of financial pressures. As fares rise annually until 2030, the prospect of restoring pre-pandemic passenger numbers or improving satisfaction scores seems increasingly remote.
