California Governor Poll Raises Prospect of Two Republicans in Runoff
A recent poll commissioned by the California Democratic Party has revealed a surprising trend in the state's gubernatorial race, with conservative candidates leading as Democratic support fragments across a crowded field. The survey, conducted by Evitarus Research among 2,000 likely voters, indicates that Republicans could secure both spots in the November runoff, a scenario that alarms many in this traditionally liberal stronghold.
Poll Results Highlight Republican Advantage
According to the poll results published on Tuesday, conservative political commentator Steve Hilton commands 16% support, while Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco follows closely with 14%. In contrast, Democratic candidates are locked in a tight three-way tie: Congressman Eric Swalwell, former Representative Katie Porter, and billionaire environmental activist Tom Steyer each garner 10% backing from surveyed voters.
This pattern echoes findings from a UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released last week, where Hilton led with 17% and Bianco had 16%, while Swalwell, Porter, and Steyer trailed with 14%, 13%, and 10% respectively. Mark DiCamillo, director of the Berkeley IGS Poll, noted in a statement that "voters remain largely disengaged and unenthusiastic about the candidates and the election," underscoring the unpredictable nature of the race.
Democratic Field Remains Crowded and Divided
Under California's unique primary system, the top two vote-getters in the June primary advance to the general election, regardless of party affiliation. With at least eight Democrats vying to replace outgoing Governor Gavin Newsom, the party faces internal challenges. Despite calls from California Democratic Party chair Rusty Hicks for low-polling candidates to withdraw to avoid a potential Republican win, only one has done so, leaving the field fragmented.
Other Democratic contenders include former health and human services secretary and state attorney general Xavier Becerra, San Jose Mayor Matt Mahan, state schools superintendent Tony Thurmond, former Los Angeles mayor Antonio Villaraigosa, and former state controller Betty Yee. The Evitarus poll shows these candidates with minimal support: Becerra, Villaraigosa, and Mahan at 3%, Yee at 2%, and Thurmond at 1%. Notably, 24% of voters remain undecided and not leaning toward any candidate, highlighting widespread voter apathy.
Controversy and Debate Cancellation Add to Tensions
The race has been marred by controversy, particularly around the Democratic Party's stance that underperforming candidates should exit. Thurmond criticized this position earlier this month, arguing that the political system is rigged and that the party is "essentially telling every candidate of color in the race for governor to drop out." This tension was further exacerbated when the University of Southern California cancelled a planned debate featuring Hilton, Bianco, Swalwell, Porter, Steyer, and Mahan due to criticism over the lack of candidates of color.
Hilton responded to the cancellation by calling it "yet another example of insane Democrat incompetence" and suggested that the Trump administration should suspend federal funding to USC. As the primary approaches, the dynamics of this race continue to evolve, with Republicans positioned to capitalize on Democratic disunity in a state where such an outcome was once considered improbable.
